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Author:Bhavna Pani
Market Analyst
OPEC predicts declining oil demand and oversupply for 2009
Tuesday 16th, December 2008

One day before members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meet to discuss reducing production, the cartel said Tuesday that global oil demand would decrease in 2009, contributing to an overhang of stocks. As industrialised countries slipped into a recession, global oil consumption would fall to 85.68 million barrels per day next year, a year-on-year decrease of 0.18 percent, Vienna-based OPEC said in its monthly oil market report.

The figures stood in contrast to a forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which said last week that demand would grow slightly, by 0.5 percent.OPEC president Chakib Khelil has indicated that the cartel's oil ministers would decide on a substantial cut of production quotas when they meet in Oran, Algeria Wednesday, in order to support falling prices and deal with lower demand.

As OPEC predicts falling demand and rising production from non-OPEC suppliers, it said stocks would grow in the first three quarters of 2009, creating a market imbalance that would be addressed in Oran.In November, OPEC had still forecast global oil demand to grow by 0.57 percent next year.

"Should the world economic situation show further deterioration and the winter prove to be warmer than expected, then oil demand might show a further decline," the report said.

 
Comments
Comment 1: By varun vyas on 01st Jan 2009
well done.....
nice information....
keep it up...

Comment 2: By Mitul Patel on 22nd Dec 2008
Really Nice Information dear.
Thanks for all.

Comment 3: By Ravindra Kumar on 21st Dec 2008
The Global market emparked on correction due to recession in the Global economy and hence the decline in Oil as well. The present decline very well atibued to it too.

Comment 4: By kapur dhiraj on 19th Dec 2008
Hi Bhavana

This is valuable information thanks
Dhiraj Kapur
Portfolio Manager
Asia Pacific and Europe

Comment 5: By ricky cool on 19th Dec 2008
awesooo this words come direct from heart !

Comment 6: By kiran kumar on 18th Dec 2008
Good

Comment 7: By R K Vajpeyi on 18th Dec 2008
Best wishes - you did a good job of presenting the situation in proper perspective.
In my view the prediction of a decline in demand is intended to find excuses to reduce production and send crude prices soaring.
The world has to begin seeing through OPEC designs and come-up with counter measures.
Rest of the world has to remember that they (Crude Exporting countries) have a monopoly on crude but then the rest of the countries collectively are monopolistic suppliers of all essential commodities to them.
It is strange that while OPEC has held the world to ransom amassing trillions in Petrodollars or PetroEuros, no one has thought of it. It is even more strange that no one appears interested in taking up this idea further.


Comment 8: By AMAR SHARMA on 18th Dec 2008
With the prices of vehilcle being slashed there will be more buyers even though they might not be able to maintain the car they would like to have the car as a status symbol.Hence,the demand would keep rising.The market works on demand and supply and not on any other funda.

amar sharma - 9820418937

Comment 9: By Ramesh Vishwakarma on 18th Dec 2008
gOOD iNFORMATION...

Comment 10: By tanzim raza on 18th Dec 2008
I am Tanzim Raza from New Delhi India. I am a Tour Operator.
I don't know about you and your company so I don't have any comments.

Thanks & Regards

Tanzim Raza
09891680312

Comment 11: By prashanth Bhat on 17th Dec 2008
I do not think so.This situation look like just temporary.
I think demand will be increase soon.

Comment 12: By Ravi Kumar on 17th Dec 2008
In my opinion the price of Oil is not declining because of the decrease in demand. If you look at the trend in the last one and half years there was a great spike in its price owing to the excessive speculation in the market. A decline in the Equity market because of the Bankruptcy of some really big Financial companies lead to migration of investment money from Equity market to Commodity market leading to high inflation in oil price which is one of the very volaitile market in commodity. But then sick US financial market's spill over effect start affecting EU market and then to Asian market also. This lead to fear of huge job losses and a phase of great depression which in return lead the investor to pull out money even from commodity. This is happening because they have started hoarding money because they start feeling the liquidity crunch because of lack of trust in the market.
In my opinion the highest price of oil which was somewhere around 150$ a barrel was definitely not because of the huge demand but because of the market sentiments. And at present the decline in the oil price is also more of the sentiment (lack of trust in the market). In my opinion by march 2009 the things will start getting clear as the steps taken by the Govt of countries will start showing its affect by then and market will start stabilizing. I am expecting the volatility to be getting lower during Jan and feb. and Market will be mostly Range Bound in Equity. And then if market will start pulling up then again second phase of moderate inflation can be seen because of ppl entering the commodity again.
Though nothing is Guaranteed I will just wait and see if this comes true or not.


Comment 13: By Dinesh Mehra on 17th Dec 2008
I dont think so? But current market situation is very bad.


Comment 14: By tanmay patel on 17th Dec 2008
i do not think so.
i think this situation is is just temperary.
my be within 3-4 months demand will increase.

Comment 15: By Devesh Rastogi on 16th Dec 2008
I agree with OPEC observations. Price decline on the crude will be due to following facts -

1. Recession in global economy.
2. Speculative sentiments are low.
3. 2008 has witnessed some unprecedented growth in crude
rates in the first half, which has forced govts to think
over utilization of alternative energy sources. With
controlled usages and no growth momentum, the demand will
fall.

A decline in demand and therefore a reduction in prices is good news for the consumer and will help boost the sentiments in the longer run.



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