With international crude oil prices continuing to slide for the past eight weeks, UPA strategists are deliberating whether they can time a politically tempting cut in motor fuel prices to gain populist points ahead of the assembly elections in five states due in November.

Even though the numbers are still stacked against any reduction, a marginal cut of up to Rs 2 a litre in pump prices will help repair the ruling UPA's inflation-battered image, coalition sources said.

International oil has dropped to around $105 a barrel from a high of $147 on July 11. The slide began on July 16 when crude oil posted its biggest slump in 17 years, dipping over $10 a barrel. TOI had then said pump prices wouldn't change immediately but if the slide continued for over a month or so, public sentiment — and easing of economic pressure — could give the government leeway to affect a token reduction.

Coalition strategists feel that the time for making an announcement is in sight. An indication of this came on Friday when petroleum minister Murli Deora said pump prices could be reduced if "international oil price falls further". The same day, BJP spokesperson, Prakash Javdekar, fanned public sentiment arguing that the government should cut prices now that oil has cooled off.

Technically, the government is scheduled to review fuel prices in October. If oil settles around $100/barrel by then, chances are that coalition leaders may force Deora to decrease pump prices marginally around the time the festival season which kicks in along with elections.

Even as the Manmohan Singh government celebrates its nuclear waiver, Congress managers are all too aware that inflation remains a sore point. They are concerned that price rise may help BJP-ruled states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan stave off anti-incumbency by blaming the Centre for the sharp increase in food and transport budgets of most families.