It is quite cliché to say history repeats itself. Today, as the heartland of India made its electoral choices clear, I can, at the risk of sounding like an expert, say that history indeed repeats itself. In this age of fickle attention spans, and short public memories, all one needs to do is look back at the pages of recent history, which will make it clear how the verdict today is quite similar to what happened exactly five years ago..

Lets flashback to the 2001-2003 time-frame first, when the then ruling party, the BJP lost election after election, and the cadre of the only mainstream cadre-based party was quite demoralized. Save for Gujarat, which was a whole different story, the BJP did not manage anything significant anywhere. Then, towards the fag end of 2003, the heartland went into the election mode, and BJP came out as a clear champion, and imagined that the momentum of the day had shifted towards itself. Barely a few months later, except for the heartland, the BJP lost significantly in all other parts of the country, and lost power.

Now, in the recent times, the present ruling party, the Congress, lost all big states elections since 2006, including states like Karnataka, where it lost to rookie BJP, and UP, where it failed to mobilize any votes, despite the Rahul baba factor. Come the big pre-Lok Sabha election, the Congress has sprung a surprise to many, by beating a rather popular incumbent in Rajasthan, and retaining power in Delhi for the third time, something unheard of in modern times. A lot of people would be surprised by these turn of events, but well, I can say, these guys don’t remember 2003 that well.

Such are the nuances of a democracy, especially one based on the Westminister system. Now, while I try to put in perspective today’s event, I may say that the “elections not being fought on caste” is a myth, since it seems most of rural India still votes on the basis of caste, although performance of the sitting candidate, the incumbent government’s performance, and developmental issues do matter. And now, the last byte : I am no pundit, but I strongly believe that 2009 LS elections will be a repeat of the 2004, where the in-momentum ruling party may suffer a surprise defeat, despite a rather impressive performance in tough times.