The economic recovery may not create too many opportunities for job-hoppers and students graduating next year. For, Indian companies did not lay off many people in the downturn; they are unlikely to hire in large numbers now for middle-management or entry-level positions.

Strategic hiring

Companies may do strategic hiring for specific skill sets, or there may be some activity in sectors like infrastructure or power. "Barring a few sectors like these, it is likely to be jobless recovery,'' Unlike in the West, there were no large-scale layoffs in India. Most companies bore the brunt of the downturn. ''There's slack in the system and companies have no intention of hiring in big numbers,'' Besides, there are no triggers for adding people, say experts.

Telecom, BPO, Retail drove jobs in 2001

After earlier downturns in 2001 or 2003-04, key sectors like telecom, BPO, telecom and retail banking drove jobs and absorbed loads of jobs. ''The existing talent pool is fairly large, as the base has expanded. There will be churn. The usual factors like no increments will come into play,'' .''There's no significant improvement in corporate performance. Sales volumes are up only 10 per cent,''

Start-up type jobs on the upswing

But not all is lost. As multinationals hunt for growth in India and China, they will make investments but these will be more of the start-up type of jobs. The second wave in telecom could create 10,000-15,000 jobs in the next 12-24 months,. Insurance has a long way to go, banking will see some growth and brokerages are picking up.

Retail in correction mode

But, retail continues to be in correction mode, and won't hire in large numbers unless there's a change in regulations. Real estate is still not adding people, despite a pick up in sales. The information technology sector is adding fewer jobs than it did last year or the year before last. Infosys, for instance, plans to add 18,000 people this year, against 25,000 in 2008 and 33,000 in 2007. BPOs are also reasonably staffed and may not add larger numbers.