Can the band of 9450-9000 break in this week...
Sensex Technical View :
Sensex
continues to move in the range on 9000-9450 and now its back towards
the upper side of the range. But with lower volumes the trading
momentum may not necessarily give a major move and could be limited to
a range of 400 points ( 9k-9.4k).
So
simple study suggests above or below the range would give a trading
move for short term.Important resistance on upside is 9900-10100 band
which is trendline and 61% retracement also comes closer to it.
Stocks to watchout for :
Trailing stops got hit for some shorts close to price. Will now wait for new trades.
Reliance
This
heavy seems to be the stock which would decide the next move in the
index. 1380-1350 zone on upside and 1240-1270 on downside are critical
levels in short term. It would be a possible triangle breakout above
1380 provided it is supported with volumes as it did not fall below
1270.
Cement stocks seemed to have firmed up on charts and are giving good indications in the short term.
ACC above 550 , Ambuja above 74 , Ultra tech above 430 with volumes could give trading moves for 5-10% in short term.
Chamble
Fertilizers and Nagarjuna Fertilizers are seeing some activity a move
above 41 and 18 could give momentum jump of 10-20% .
Market Observation and Thoughts :
There
is whole lot of unusual activities which the market has been seeing of
late with not many justifications. Difficult to mention a lot of them
but pointing out a few as usual.
Satyam CEO
sold shares on 12th and 16 th December total 38k shares value 85-90
lakhs. This is exactly one day before the deal for Maytas acquisition
was announced ( other mgmt ppl also sold previously).
This is clear violation as undue advantage taken by an insider. Had reported the same in my earlier blog post. ( CHECK HERE ) .
Instead of being scrutinized he may get immunity and a 5 crore a year
package! ... This is a viewpoint though he might have needed money for
personal expenses :) like DLF CFO did some time back but at least he
justified his stance! ....
Every few days we
see certain small caps rising 50-80 % with a delivery percentage of
4-10%! giving a clear indication of speculative activity.
Orbit and WWIL had 5% delivery on the day stock moved up.Many other small cap real estate stocks were pumped and dumped.
There
is whole lot of circular trading done through market transactions of
late. ( transfer of profits and losses for accounting purposes)
Far-away options in index and stocks see sudden built up.
Stocks trade huge volumes but hardly and delivery trades ! some low floating stocks sometimes trade at 0-10% delivery !!!.
Auction markets also doing weird things at times.
It
might also be a blessing in disguise as our regulators might be forced
to notice of things, so in the next bull cycle we may have better
systems and tougher regulations ... its all about hope :)
For exclusive recommendations and advisory services check http://www.nooreshtech.co.in for details to subscribe
Best Regards,
Nooresh
09819225396
noorrock2002@gmail.com meraninooresh@yahoo.com
http://nooreshtech.blogspot.com/
http://nooreshtech.blogspot.com/
|