Sensex 13.3k or 15.5k ?? Dow 9.1k or 7.8k?? Hang Seng 16k or 19.5k??

Nooresh Silicon

Investment Advisor and Trainer

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AT WORK

Sensex Technical View :

Technically the up trend continues to remain strong as it has seen good support around the gap area of 13500.

In the long term update of Sensex Elliot and Technical perspective

following was mentioned.

"" Sensex is currently in the B wave which is not a BULL RUN as dubbed by some Elliot wave chaps ( will speak on them in next post ). This move should touch 38/50% levels of the total fall from 21k. Corresponding levels are 12900/14500. This move in the extreme case also should not cross 15700-16k ( 61% level )"""

Sensex has achieved the tgt of 14500 and in the extreme case it can even retrace back to 16k levels maximum which is 61.8% of the entire downfall from 21k to 7.7k. The previous top at 15580 would also be a major resistance.

The index might have moved up 100% from the lows in that case but technically we would term this a correction of the downfall and major base building for the next bull run where in we may see a contraction phase which may get into a range for quite some time.

The next move now has two alternatives would be

Sensex intermediate top made at 14930

Then the index should retrace back 38/50% of the entire upmove from 8k to 14.9k. So the levels then would be 12300/11500 where one could look to review the situation to look for long term picks same way as we did at 9k

Sensex intermediate top at 15.5k-16k

Then the index should retrace back 38/50% of the entire upmove from 8k to 14.9k. So the levels then would be around 13k/11.8k roughly will get exact once we confirm the top.

As a strategy investors/traders should now be extreme short term and very stock specific ( moves could be more here ) in the range of 13500/15500 with a view to book partial profits and generate cash as and when the momentum slows down to keep position to again buy on the pullback. Opportunities to trade will be abundant :) .

Ideally we could well have a nice dip once we can co

nfirm the intermediate top formation in next 2-8 weeks subsequent to which we could see a slow drifting downwards move where we may again research for fresh set of stocks.

Dow Jones and Hang Seng - two index havin good co-relation with Sensex

Dow Jones if crosses 8500-8600 could well be headed towards 9100 or higher. On the downside 7800/8100 remains a good support.

Hang Seng has given a fresh breakout above 17500-17800 if continues to stay above these levels then it may head to 19k-19.5k in short term. On the downside 16k/16.5k remains a good support.

So lets c how it pans out in the next 2-8 weeks. The view is clear i suppose !

Stocks to watchout for :

Bharti Airtel ( recommended to clients at 758 a day back ) does a nice move to 800 + levels continue to remain bullish for possible tgts 810/84

0. Nicholas wait for breakout . HCL tech hold. Great offshore and Venus remedies view remains bullish for short term.

Alstom projects chart and view posted . Above 470 could move quickly