Sensex 12900 might be achieved.
Sensex Technical View :
The technical view
posted a few days back had clearly mentioned about a possibility of a
gap up action above 12300. This was based on the observation that after
a touch down to the momentum line Sensex has broke out above the recent
highs/range by a gap-up action. Click on chart below.
So
ideally from here the opening gap up low would be an important level to
watch from here and 12300 could be the important support.
The
range for now was 11272-11620 which points to a minimum target price of
12925. So we might see a good resistance around in this zone.
On
the medium term basis ever since 9k-10k levels the view has been bang
on and crystal clear that this upmove should go to 38/50% of the entire
downmove. The levels for the same 12900/14500 and a max to max 15800 (
61%) which should be reached in the 12-14 months equivalent to the
entire downfall period.
We might be close to
achieving 12900 and 14500 is the next level but there is a very good
possibility that we see a decent dip !! after crossing 12900 or a lot
of pressure around this area. A technical confirmation of the dip comes
only on breakout of the momentum line.
ALSO in leisure time have a read through this post -- http://nooreshtech.blogspot.com/2009/05/re-cap-sensex-8k-to-maybe-13k.html
Stocks to watchout for :
ABAN LLOYD and CENTURY textiles mentioned as performers for the day. Aban rocked 20% ++ but century did a decent 3-5% move.
BLUE Start pyramiding investment pick from 180 does 225 !! Look to book out at 240 half the qty and hold rest for long term.
I
wont make a bet on policy triggers or election impact stocks as i have
not enough info or will to analyze the same in extreme detail. Some of
the particular stocks looking good technically are discussed below.
Central Bank of India
The stock has given a breakout above 50 levels expect it to cross 60 in coming days. Buy closer to 53 for a short term trade.
SCI
The
stock has been ranged between 70-100 in the last few months. Sustaining
above 100 for a few sessions should give a move to 114/130 in short to
medium term. Accumulate
Alstom projects
Possible
fresh breakout above 365 should target 395/450 in medium term. Buy
above 365 and keep position to add on dips also for the tgts.
Power
Grid,PFC ,Areva TnD look good on charts for a strong upmove and
possible election impact also. Small PSU Banks like Vijaya, Dena and
others could see action alongwith Neyveli Lignite,MRPL or some PSUs.
Just a view no detailed idea here.
The
current upmove on Monday would be backed by large caps and a possible
new range on the index in coming sessions. Traders shoud take care and
not be get euphoric with sentiments and be extremely stock specific as
gains would now depend on stock selection.
Just
a gut feeling after the euphoria this week we may see lot of
midcaps/small caps which have been on low valuations may see huge
moves. There is still a lot of such attractive stocks in the broader
segment which have not participated in the rise.
Earlier
in the months of March i did try to elicit fundamental views on number
of mid cap stocks but hardly got any comments. Hope to see more
comments on possible stock picks from readers in the comments or mail
to noorrock2002@gmail.com
IFGL refractories,
Time Techno, Patel Integrated Logistics , Dishman Pharma,Aurion pro
look very much interesting at current levels. !!
Market Observations and Thoughts :
Will
reserver this section for a detailed post in the week but one thing
that comes to my mind at possible 13k-14k levels is that lot many large
caps have moved up by 100-150% from the lows. Reliance a biggy is only
30-35% down from peak and 100% + from the lows.
Lot
many participants might have increased exposure to equities in this
period and will still do on the euphoria by elections. But we need to
keep the discipline to avoid the possible risks and surprises.
In
the month of Feb/March though there was uncertainty the strategy to go
in a pyramid manner, fundament + technical stock picking in the broader
market with adequate research gave us great returns. A large section of
market participants feel left out though at times we felt a lot
OVERBOUGHt :) till date.
So yet again we are
at a stage to come up with a new strategy to counter possible risks and
also create a disciplined pattern of trading/investment. Sensex may
possibly reach 12900/14500 on higher side for short to medium term from
where there is a good possibility of a time wise/price wise correction.
Investors have exposure to MFs./long term portfolio/trading/equity
linked plans.
As an individual investor its
time to look into personal exposures and re-shuffle the same. Once we
cross 13k the risk-reward on the index may tilt and am looking towards
how we could have a HEDGE strategy through index futures,options and
other instruments. Will delve more into it in the week. Hope to receive
more suggestions !!
IF U LIKE THE STUFF ON THE BLOG PASS IT TO OTHERS :)
Mail to noorrock2002@gmail.com to arrange a session in your city.
Best Regards,
Nooresh
09819225396 ( aftr mkt hours )
meraninooresh@yahoo.com
noorrock2002@gmail.com
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