Rice prices may return to record levels
Food price protests swept the globe from Bangladesh to Haiti last year after fears of supply shortages prompted producers including India and Vietnam to cut exports. Rice futures surged to a record $25.07 per 100 pounds in April 2008 as shipments slowed and the Philippines, the biggest buyer, increased purchases to secure supplies and cool inflation.
“Circumstances present that possibility” of rice prices returning to record levels.
Spot rice prices in the US, the fourth-largest exporter, may surge to $16 per 100 pounds early next year from more than $12 now, as cool, wet weather reduces output there and drought and storms limit supplies from Latin America, India and the Philippines, Roberts said. US output may miss a Department of Agriculture estimate by as much as 15% and help push spot and futures prices even higher, through last year’s records, he added.
Demand High
Global demand for milled rice in the marketing year through 2010 will jump to the highest level since at least 1960 and exceed output by 2.4 million metric tons, the USDA said Oct. 9. That forecast assumes a 2.7% decline in global output to 433.6 million tons and an 8.3% gain in US output from a year earlier to 7.056 million tons.
Transparency Lacking
Futures and spot prices have yet to reflect the global supply and demand situation because of a lack of transparency in some of the government data that traders rely on, the US Producers Association’s Roberts said.
“Sooner or later when there’s a big purchase, and stocks are low, then reality hits,” he said. “And that’s not just in the United States.”
For more info: http://prakashtradingconsultants.com/?p=17
“Circumstances present that possibility” of rice prices returning to record levels.
Spot rice prices in the US, the fourth-largest exporter, may surge to $16 per 100 pounds early next year from more than $12 now, as cool, wet weather reduces output there and drought and storms limit supplies from Latin America, India and the Philippines, Roberts said. US output may miss a Department of Agriculture estimate by as much as 15% and help push spot and futures prices even higher, through last year’s records, he added.
Demand High
Global demand for milled rice in the marketing year through 2010 will jump to the highest level since at least 1960 and exceed output by 2.4 million metric tons, the USDA said Oct. 9. That forecast assumes a 2.7% decline in global output to 433.6 million tons and an 8.3% gain in US output from a year earlier to 7.056 million tons.
Transparency Lacking
Futures and spot prices have yet to reflect the global supply and demand situation because of a lack of transparency in some of the government data that traders rely on, the US Producers Association’s Roberts said.
“Sooner or later when there’s a big purchase, and stocks are low, then reality hits,” he said. “And that’s not just in the United States.”
For more info: http://prakashtradingconsultants.com/?p=17
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