India's GDP to average 7.2 pc over next 5 yrs:Economist
India, the world's second-fastest growing economy may see negative inflation for the next 3-6 months triggering expectation of rate cuts by banks, according the research arm of London-based Economist .Global share prices have been boosted on expectations that the worst of the global economic meltdown is over, however, a sustainable recovery is distant, it maintained.
Emerging Asia will be the world's fastest-growing region over the next five years (2010-13), but this mainly reflects a relatively strong growth performance by India and China. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) expects India's real GDP growth to average 7.2 per cent over the next five years as risks to the global economy continue to remain high.
Risks to the global economy remain high. The most serious concern is that various stimulus packages being implemented globally will not be sufficient to trigger self-sustaining recovery. For India, the biggest risk to growth remains its ballooning fiscal deficit.
India is likely to see negative inflation for three to six months, making a case for further rate cuts by the central bank. The report says that we can expect the repo rate to be cut by a further 50 basis points, to 4.25 per cent, in the next few months. “There may be more green shoots of recovery in the global economy as fiscal and monetary stimulus packages start to have an impact, but "growth over the next two years will be marked by a high degree of volatility- EIU Director of Research Manoj Vohra said.
Emerging Asia will be the world's fastest-growing region over the next five years (2010-13), but this mainly reflects a relatively strong growth performance by India and China. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) expects India's real GDP growth to average 7.2 per cent over the next five years as risks to the global economy continue to remain high.
Risks to the global economy remain high. The most serious concern is that various stimulus packages being implemented globally will not be sufficient to trigger self-sustaining recovery. For India, the biggest risk to growth remains its ballooning fiscal deficit.
India is likely to see negative inflation for three to six months, making a case for further rate cuts by the central bank. The report says that we can expect the repo rate to be cut by a further 50 basis points, to 4.25 per cent, in the next few months. “There may be more green shoots of recovery in the global economy as fiscal and monetary stimulus packages start to have an impact, but "growth over the next two years will be marked by a high degree of volatility- EIU Director of Research Manoj Vohra said.
|
|
