So Much To Celebrate In This Festive Season
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So Much To Celebrate In This Festive Season

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Evidently, the Indian consumer is unfazed by the gloomy pictures painted by commentators. Policy paralysis and governance gap are trendy phrases to use, but not much more than just that.

Consider that listed Indian companies grew their top-line by an impressive 28% in the quarter ended September 2011 after a 27% growth in the previous quarter. This is a stellar performance by any standard. Companies have not seen this kind of growth since before the 2008 global crisis.

Growth in sales of listed companies is the most reliable measure of growth in demand in India. The official statistical machinery does not estimate demand directly. Their data are therefore mostly confusing and often misleading. Audited accounts of listed companies that stand the scrutiny of the myriad users are far more transparent and therefore a lot more reliable than official statistics. These financial results from corporates tell us a much happier story of the Indian economy than official statistics do.

Most commentators have been unfair to the Indian economy. They have focussed on the dece-leration in the index of industrial production (IIP) and failed to appreciate the acceleration in corporate sales. There are good reasons to be very sceptical about the reliability of the IIP. Yet, they choose to repose faith in it and to be sceptical of exports data instead, which shows some extraordinary rise. When the Society for Indian Automobile Manufacturers releases data on automobiles, these sceptics see the fall in car sales and not the impressive rise in two-wheeler sales.

This is unfair to an economy that is doing exceptionally well during times of global stress.

To a large extent, this scepticism emanates from analysts of financial markets. Spooked by global uncertainties, foreign institutional investors have been net sellers on the Indian markets. And their analysts seem to reflect the gloomy prognosis of global fund managers. No wonder Indian stock markets have been volatile and often in the red.

A lot of money rides on the stock markets. The market capitalisation of Indian equities is about 80% of the Indian GDP. But that grossly exaggerates its importance. Less than 1% of Indian households own equities. The poor performance of the equities markets in recent times does not affect too many people.

In contrast, more than two-thirds of Indian households own gold and nearly 90% households own a residential property. Prices of these have zoomed in recent times. It would, therefore, be safe to bet that the wealth of Indian households has increased dramatically in recent years.

Indians are lapping up gold very enthusiastically. India is the world's largest gold consumer. And, its appetite for the yellow metal seems to be insatiable. In 2010-11, India imported gold worth $40 billion. This was a whopping 41% higher than the gold imported in 2009-10, which itself was 38% higher than in the previous year. These increases are not merely a reflection of the rise in gold prices. In fact, in spite of the runaway increase in gold prices, gold imports increased by 10% in 2008-09 and also in 2009-10 and then a further 14% in 2010-11, in tonnage.

Most of this demand for gold is not included in the growth in corporate sales. It is therefore additional demand. This, perhaps, is the most compelling evidence in favour of robust domestic demand growth. There is a lot more.

Personal loans as of August 2011 were more than 15% higher than they were a year ago. Most of these are loans for housing. Salaries, on average, grew by more than 17%, the rains were above average and not below average as predicted by the India Meteorological Department, kharif sowing was up by 3.1% this year and reservoir levels are 15% higher than last year. The agriculture sector is therefore expected to do well for a second consecutive year.

Freight movement on the railways, cargo traffic in ports and passenger traffic in airports are all growing much faster this year than they did last year.

Clearly, India is on a roll. So, then, what about high inflation and high interest rates? Partly, high inflation rates reflect high commodity prices globally and partly they reflect the greater demand we have for better quality foods. So, prices of milk, meat, fruits and vegetables have been the major sources of inflation. Inflation in their prices has been in double digits, while that in foodgrain prices has been in the range of 2-3%. Households are headed towards improving the quality of their living and they are willing to pay for this.

Seven consecutive years of high growth have increased employment and wage rates. Savings rates are high and savings options are too risky. An improvement in the quality of life through higher consumption is therefore a logical and attractive option.

The persistent hike in interest rates has not hurt consumers enough to dent their zest to live better. Consumerism is not highly geared in India. Less than 12% of households borrow.

Indians have the money and are willing to spend. And they demand a better society - less corrupt and more civil, possibly better engaged in the creation of a better tomorrow. I don't mean demands of the Anna Hazare type. I refer to the demand of schoolchildren who tell their parents to not burst crackers. Happy Diwali.

The writer is managing director, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.

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