Climate Policy: A global deal post 2012
The Kyoto Protocol is generally seen as an important first step towards a truly global emission reduction regime that will stabilise greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It provides the essential architecture for any future international agreement on climate change.
By the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012, a new international framework needs to have been negotiated and ratified that can deliver the stringent emission reductions needed. The IPCC says that we must cut global emissions in half from 1990 levels, with a peak in emissions by 2015, if we are to have a reasonable chance of avoiding a 2 degree rise – widely accepted as the threshold for unacceptable and unpredictable change.
Countries, states and cities have set GHG emissions reduction targets in line with – or even more ambitious than – the Kyoto Protocol. For instance:
• Norway is aiming to be carbon neutral by 2050
• California targets to reduce its GHG emissions by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050
• London plans a 60% reduction of CO2 emissions below 2000 levels by 2050
What governments are doing
Developing countries are also making some efforts, as they increasingly feel the impacts of climate change and energy scarcity. China, for example, which recently overtook the US as the world’s biggest emitter of GHG emissions, has planned to decrease its energy consumption per unit of GDP by 20% compared to 2005 by 2010, resulting in reduced emissions intensity.
Leading legislation is being implemented in order to achieve these carbon reduction targets. For example, the European Union’s “climate action and renewable energy package” will deliver on the EU’s commitments to reducing its overall emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 with an improved emissions trading scheme, a renewable energy development target, energy efficiency measures and a push on low carbon technologies. It is also ready to scale up the emissions reduction to as much as 30% under a new global climate change agreement if other developed countries make comparable efforts.
What business are doing
In the private sector, a wide range of businesses are developing low carbon products and services and cutting their carbon footprints. Even under existing, local regulatory frameworks there are major opportunities for investors, with investment in the clean energy sector at US$148.4 billion in 2007, up no less than 60% on 2006. See our What can be done section for the latest initiatives and success stories in the both the public and private sector.
This response still is not commensurate with the scale of the problem. The reality is that despite current actions, emissions are actually growing faster now than at any time before, at approximately 3% each year. If the world continues on its current energy path, dominated by fossil fuels, energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 will be, according to the International Energy Agency, two and half times their current levels.
This is why we need a global deal on climate change - One that will set an overall target for the world and establish an effective, efficient and equitable framework for its implementation. This deal needs to do three things:
It must incentivise not just governments but also business and industry to develop the science and technology of the future.
It must define what we mean when we talk about ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ between the developed and developing world. We know there needs to be an international agreement that brings everyone on board, including the US and China, but we cannot expect the obligations to be the same because the stages of development are different. We need to try to define what those obligations should be.
This agreement has got to allow the global transfer of technology and unlock the appropriate financial support to enable the developing world to easily access and implement new technologies at a cost that does not impede growth.
By the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012, a new international framework needs to have been negotiated and ratified that can deliver the stringent emission reductions needed. The IPCC says that we must cut global emissions in half from 1990 levels, with a peak in emissions by 2015, if we are to have a reasonable chance of avoiding a 2 degree rise – widely accepted as the threshold for unacceptable and unpredictable change.
Countries, states and cities have set GHG emissions reduction targets in line with – or even more ambitious than – the Kyoto Protocol. For instance:
• Norway is aiming to be carbon neutral by 2050
• California targets to reduce its GHG emissions by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050
• London plans a 60% reduction of CO2 emissions below 2000 levels by 2050
What governments are doing
Developing countries are also making some efforts, as they increasingly feel the impacts of climate change and energy scarcity. China, for example, which recently overtook the US as the world’s biggest emitter of GHG emissions, has planned to decrease its energy consumption per unit of GDP by 20% compared to 2005 by 2010, resulting in reduced emissions intensity.
Leading legislation is being implemented in order to achieve these carbon reduction targets. For example, the European Union’s “climate action and renewable energy package” will deliver on the EU’s commitments to reducing its overall emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 with an improved emissions trading scheme, a renewable energy development target, energy efficiency measures and a push on low carbon technologies. It is also ready to scale up the emissions reduction to as much as 30% under a new global climate change agreement if other developed countries make comparable efforts.
What business are doing
In the private sector, a wide range of businesses are developing low carbon products and services and cutting their carbon footprints. Even under existing, local regulatory frameworks there are major opportunities for investors, with investment in the clean energy sector at US$148.4 billion in 2007, up no less than 60% on 2006. See our What can be done section for the latest initiatives and success stories in the both the public and private sector.
This response still is not commensurate with the scale of the problem. The reality is that despite current actions, emissions are actually growing faster now than at any time before, at approximately 3% each year. If the world continues on its current energy path, dominated by fossil fuels, energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 will be, according to the International Energy Agency, two and half times their current levels.
This is why we need a global deal on climate change - One that will set an overall target for the world and establish an effective, efficient and equitable framework for its implementation. This deal needs to do three things:
It must incentivise not just governments but also business and industry to develop the science and technology of the future.
It must define what we mean when we talk about ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ between the developed and developing world. We know there needs to be an international agreement that brings everyone on board, including the US and China, but we cannot expect the obligations to be the same because the stages of development are different. We need to try to define what those obligations should be.
This agreement has got to allow the global transfer of technology and unlock the appropriate financial support to enable the developing world to easily access and implement new technologies at a cost that does not impede growth.
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