THE GREAT RECESSION OF 2008-09
Recession, economic slowdown, world business effected bla bla bla. We hear these stories every day.
I wake up every morning to find a good day and while sipping my coffee I glance through the head lines on news paper. One corner says Good morning in may be 8 size fonts the other moment I read headlines in 24 size fonts. “Man kills family and self for loosing job in US”. “60,000 loose jobs in USA”. , “So and so company is planning to retrench its employees. On the other hand billions of dollars have been spent on a 3 to 4 hrs. of waiting and 10 minutes adress by Mr. Barak Hussein Obama. The same money would have been enough to keep all the job loosers in US well within their offices for a long time.
What is this? Do we all wake up to read all this every day? Who is responsible? what is the impact on our lives? What changes have we adopted due to this?
The answer is we tend to ignore all this as far as it is not happening to us. Where has the bloody humanity gone? Has it taken a back seat? Did we sleep without taking food on a single day because half of Orissa is not getting enough food on a daily basis. Did we leave our cozy bed for a single night because millions of our fellow country men are sleeping on footpaths as they dont even have a shelter.
We have only one goal…MAKE MONEY by hook or crook. Hardly we realize that LABH (Profit) can turn in to LOBH(Lust) by just a change in a vovel sound. We are not running for profits now but have Lust for money now.
What measures have we taken to counter this recession? Did we stop going to Cinemas?, Did we stop having parties?, Did we switch off that extra light?, Did we adopt pooled driving method because 4 or 5 of us are going to the same office but in separate cars. Answer is NO. Then whom to blame? Its WE.
We are responsible for this recession. We are going to be hit soon the same way as USA if we are not careful enough.
Now how does USA recession impact INDIA INC.? US promoted housing schemes by providing interest free loans to people so that they can buy a house. The mortgage was converted in to a certificate by the local banks. They in turn exchanged these certificates for securities which ultimately were exchanged for Gold or invested in stocks worldwide. Thus a dollar borrowed by a house owner from banks ultimately was converted in to a security certificate on which more then 100 Dollars were borrowed. Little they realize that people who are buying houses on easy mortgage do not have enough financial resources to pay back. But they knew one thing that in 2 to 3 years the property rates are going to go up. So even if a person does not have the capacity to repay the loan they can always encash the property at high market valuation thus earn profits. But they were wrong. The real estate rates crashed all across USA putting higher financial pressure on banks to recover their loans. Even after mortgaging they could not reover the money and ultimately many of FIIs had to withdraw their money from stocks. This lead to crash in stock market. Its still better off because about 25 % of the money has been withdrawn. What will happen when 100 % is withdrawn? It is possible that FIIs will withdraw all their money in coming one year or two. USA thus tried to curb this financial crunch by stopping all imports and promoting indigenous produced goods which has affected our export oriented units badly.
Worst hit is Leather industry primarily due to the reason that what ever we produce does not have a market abroad. There is Technological imbalance. Shoe makers of Dharvi do not have technology to produce quality shoes which can find a display in Paris or Milan. They would have been better if they could produce the same quality at Indian rates which are definitely cheaper then Europe. Then our leather industry would have been a boom. Same is the situation in other sectors which have been impacted. Our political system did not promote technological growth for these sectors.
Pharma sector is still a boom because more and more people are now consuming medicines related to Nervous System due to recession.
We are better at the moment as only about 16 % of our economy is based on exports & worst hit are countries which were totally dependent upon exports.
Now we need to have internal market to come out of this financial crunch. Dont guard your money but spend it. RBI should have reduced interest rates 2 months back to let the real estate sector booming. Banks have money but they are not lending. They are investing more and more in Govt. securities where they feel their money is safer.
Unfortunately all the measures taken by us are resulting in to a situation which will turn out to be a disaster for us
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