So where are we on this deep recession? I wish someone could answer this simply and truly. But global business has become so complex and inter related and with so many self interest groups and lobby that we never get to the bottom of what really is going on. And in this tug of war between “greed” and “fear” cycles, middle class is paying and bleeding.

It seems we hit bottom and probably tested the bottom last few months. And businesses are done with most of Inventory corrections and starting the purchase cycle and Capex is just about seeing positive signs. This recession shed labor like hell and moth balled Capital. US figures show unemployment at double digit, but behind the measuring model lurks truth, that show this figure could be as high as 15% that varies through economic zones.

And as we move forward, we are beginning to realize that recovery is tending towards a “jobless” recovery. At least in the first phase that could last 12 to 18 months. And if this is true, then how do we catalyze and sustain Consumer sales at levels that fuels faster recovery – with employment not improving, nor wages going up, how do we do this? And when you are in this cycle, Savings are bound to go up and for every 1% increase in savings, there is $ 110 billion less Consumer spending, which mitigates recovery. One figure estimates that for full employment in the US, America needs to spend $ 760 billion more, which directly means 7% less savings. Food for thought.

I am not sure how much bail out packages globally have helped – and if most of that money is going to save Banks, Manufacturing, and other Service sectors that represented inefficiencies and greed and bordered credibility, then why did we save them. GM, Ford and Chrysler are riddled with high cost of production and inefficiencies that could be 50% more than their Japanese or German friends. Maybe a take over by them of these ailing companies would have made more sense as then they would re engineer fundamentally and become stronger for all times to come. And I am not sure how the Banking and Financial sector looks at themselves in all this. Has Banking and financial sector really worked honestly to provide solutions to the Consumer and the small and medium enterprise that keep society propped? Or they are still chasing the big, quick high return – high risk game because of the innate greed that has plagued that Industry now for decades. I am not suggesting all is wrong – I am expressing my concerns with hope that more responsible perspectives and plans are now adopted to ensure we don’t build yet many other” bubbles” while coming out of this recession. Because, in all this the middle class suffers the most, and large businesses and the creamy layer on the top benefits.

Amen.