Bank NPAs to triple, but won’t endanger sector: CRISIL
Bank NPAs to triple, but won’t endanger sector: CRISIL
The quality of Indian banks’ assets is likely to deteriorate over the next two years. This will be drivenby the slowdown in the economy, and by the aging of loans made in recent years: banking sectoradvances have grown roughly four-fold over the past seven years, to an estimated Rs.27.7 trillion.
CRISIL projects that, by end-March 2011, the sector’s gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) willincrease to around 5 per cent of its advances, from 2.3 per cent at end-March 2008; in absolute terms,this will mean a tripling of NPAs to Rs.1.9 trillion. Nevertheless, CRISIL believes that the bankingsector’s strong capitalisation will allow it to comfortably absorb the effect of the increased NPAs.
Mr. Raman Uberoi, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings, said, “The increase in NPAs will be drivenby delinquencies in corporate loans; this asset class accounts for about 56 per cent of banks’advances.” The GNPA ratio in this segment is projected to more than double by March 2011, toaround 4.1 per cent, from the March 31, 2008 figure of 1.6 per cent. “The deterioration in the assetquality of corporate loans will result from the increasing intensity of the demand slowdown, a lackof access to funding at reasonable rates, movements in foreign exchange rates, and the lengtheningworking capital cycle. The effect of these factors on loans made to small and medium enterpriseswill be severe”, Mr. Uberoi added. In the retail loan book, a combination of dilution in underwritingstandards in the recent past, and the aging of loans in the portfolio after a period of rapid growth, willdrive delinquencies higher. The GNPA ratio in the retail portfolio, which constitutes more than 20 perof banks’ total advances, is expected to increase to 4.7 per cent by March 31, 2011, from 3.2 per centas on March 31, 2008.
The quality of Indian banks’ assets is likely to deteriorate over the next two years. This will be drivenby the slowdown in the economy, and by the aging of loans made in recent years: banking sectoradvances have grown roughly four-fold over the past seven years, to an estimated Rs.27.7 trillion.
CRISIL projects that, by end-March 2011, the sector’s gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) willincrease to around 5 per cent of its advances, from 2.3 per cent at end-March 2008; in absolute terms,this will mean a tripling of NPAs to Rs.1.9 trillion. Nevertheless, CRISIL believes that the bankingsector’s strong capitalisation will allow it to comfortably absorb the effect of the increased NPAs.
Mr. Raman Uberoi, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings, said, “The increase in NPAs will be drivenby delinquencies in corporate loans; this asset class accounts for about 56 per cent of banks’advances.” The GNPA ratio in this segment is projected to more than double by March 2011, toaround 4.1 per cent, from the March 31, 2008 figure of 1.6 per cent. “The deterioration in the assetquality of corporate loans will result from the increasing intensity of the demand slowdown, a lackof access to funding at reasonable rates, movements in foreign exchange rates, and the lengtheningworking capital cycle. The effect of these factors on loans made to small and medium enterpriseswill be severe”, Mr. Uberoi added. In the retail loan book, a combination of dilution in underwritingstandards in the recent past, and the aging of loans in the portfolio after a period of rapid growth, willdrive delinquencies higher. The GNPA ratio in the retail portfolio, which constitutes more than 20 perof banks’ total advances, is expected to increase to 4.7 per cent by March 31, 2011, from 3.2 per centas on March 31, 2008.
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