Developing Asia hopeful on trade outlook: Survey
HONG KONG: Smaller exporters in developing Asia, including
In contrast, their peers in developed Asian economies such as Hong Kong and Singapore, and further afield in Australia, remain bearish about the business outlook because they are more reliant on still weak Western demand, according to an inaugural trade confidence survey by banking giant HSBC
Improving confidence in the region's economic powerhouses
"I think
Webb said $700 billion worth of stimulus throughout Asia, much of it in
"We are seeing some quite big export flows between
The survey, conducted in April and May, covered 2,102 small and medium-sized exporters, importers and traders across Asia,
The results were used to calculate an HSBC Trade Confidence Index. The UAE was most optimistic with an index reading of 115.2. Index scores can range between 100 and 200. Anything above 100 is optimistic while scores below 100 reflect pessimism.
"The fact that the average is 105, above neutral, shows a slightly positive outlook for trade over the next three months. But if we are seeing positive signs, we know the economy is fragile, so we'll have to see how it goes in six months' time," Webb said.
Indeed,
Only 25 percent of Australian companies expect trading volumes to increase, although 47 percent say they are likely to be stable.
Companies across markets said they were mostly comfortable with access to trade finance, indicating that banks are lending to smaller companies again.
Exporters' biggest concern is volatile exchange rates, which is a bigger barrier to business growth than declining demand or profits, they say.
"In the fourth quarter of last year and early this year we saw huge fluctuations in exchange rates," Webb said. "It could be four to five months between the time a supplier accepts an order and the time he receives payment. So, if you are operating on a profit margin of 8 percent, you could see half or more of that margin wiped away by volatile exchange rates."
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