A critically important market for derivatives, the credit swaps market, now approaches an estimated $65T. But nobody in this galaxy knows what the exact figure is, instead, computerized black boxes loaded with algorithms and ‘binomial trees’ conduct these trades away from the major exchanges, leaving market regulators in the dark;

Oil supply and demand data tracking systems in emerging markets such as Russia, India and China are either as transparent as a vat of molasses or simply don’t exist, causing oil prices to whipsaw as speculators try to fill in the blanks.

Similarly, OPEC’s output data is unreliable, often because member countries don’t want to admit they’re producing above OPEC’s quotas. The markets must then rely on data from unofficial “tanker trackers” like Lloyds Maritime Information Services or Petro-Logistics SA, a teensy company that operates upstairs from a grocery store in Geneva, Switzerland.

Watch China’s poor oil data. There are thousands of so-called teapot refineries all over China” that are left out of China’s official statistics, Business Week reports. China appears to be creating a strategic stockpile of oil, but has never acknowledged it, says Eduardo Lopez, senior demand analyst for the Paris-based International Energy Agency, an affiliate of the OECD. Lopez says Russia produces “awful data” and reliable demand statistics are scarce in countries like India and Indonesia.

The scarcity of good global data is a key reason why it’s impossible to know for sure whether the next “super-spike” in oil in the coming three or four years will be up to $200 or more…or down to $80 or less.

Over the past 25 years, actual US federal tax revenues in any given year have averaged $150 billion (in today’s terms) above or below the revenue levels that the Congressional Budget Office predicted a year in advance, analysts note, due to static, not dynamic, estimates.

Did someone say Statistics are lies, Damned lies...