"The influence of android and tablets is becoming more obvious. Now the question, 'When will tablet PCs surpass notebook PCs?' has become a hot topic, which many observers believe will be 2013 or 2014," the analyst wrote in a blog post.

Hsieh was discussing a continuing downward trend on laptop panel prices based on new NPD research. Makers of LCD panels for laptops are selling their wares nearly at cost, continuing a trend evident since the second quarter of this year, even in the face of ultrabook promotion, Microsoft's launch of Windows 8, and other efforts to invigorate the notebook market this year, according to NPD.

"According to our Monthly Large-Area LCD and PDP Pricing, 14-inch HD and 15.6-inch HD notebook PC modules with wedge-type backlights have been selling for below $40, nearly at the manufacturing cost," Hsieh wrote. "The fact that there is not much difference between 14-inch and 15.6-inch means that panel pricing has driven below value in some cases."

Laptop panel prices have been declining for several quarters and "indications are that prices will remain soft through the first half of 2013," the analyst said.

Hsieh posited that a combination of hampered enterprise IT spending due to ongoing global economic concerns and growing consumer demand for tablets was helping to lower demand for laptops, and by extension the LCD panels used in them. This despite a big push from Intel and its OEM partners for ultra-slim, fast-booting ultrabooks, the rise of high-resolution LCD panels, and the Windows 8 launch—developments that haven't "proved to be powerful yet" in jumpstarting demand in the languishing PC market.

"Another issue is that many notebook PC brands appear to be carrying inventories due to slow sales this year and preparation for the Windows 8 launch," Hsieh noted. "Notebook PC panel buyers have been asking panel makers for rebates or for marketing funds to compensate for losses in panel inventory value as panel prices have fallen."

What's more, fewer than half of the biggest OEMs appear to believe things will turn around any time soon. Out of nine major computer makers tracked by NPD, only four—Apple, Asus, Lenovo, and Sony—anticipate making more laptops in 2013 than the target shipment numbers they put forward for 2012, according to NPD.

Those companies that are forecasting growth in their laptop business are only anticipating moderate gains of a few million units at most, however. On the flip side, Dell appears to be preparing to gut its notebook business with a shipping target of just 16 million units in 2013 after planning to ship 25.3 million laptops this year.