Global warming to global cooling?

Janardan Negi, a distinguished theoretical geophysicist, has made a controversial forecast that the global warming phase will change to global cooling and the temperature anomaly will decline substantially by the year 2030. Some effects of the process are already evident in the cold wave of 2010 which has brought about widespread snowfall in the northern hemisphere. "The global cooling trend is expected to dominate till around 2030," says Negi.

Unprecedented cold sweeping across the globe
Unprecedented cold is sweeping across the globe: Beijing was hit by the heaviest snowfall in the past 40 years. BBC reported that Latvia has recorded lowest temperature of -27 C which is a record low in 100 years. In Russia the lows are the lowest in about 25 years. The Northern Hemisphere shivers with reports from Scotland, Southern England etc being blanketed in the thickest snow since 1981.

Cooling of earth started 400 years ago
How can it be so cold despite the warming trend in recent years? The answer, according to Negi, is that there is a very strong global cyclic weather phenomenon which is independent of the greenhouse gas emissions. The cooling of the earth already started 400 years ago when Europe experienced a mini-ice age. The inter-glacial period is coming to an end. “Warming is a short-term excursion followed by global cooling which shall slowly but surely dominate."

Solar activity responsible
According to Negi, solar activity and not human activity is contributing to the observed temperature variations. The sunspots also occur in a cyclic fashion with the well-known periodicity of 11 years, 50 years and 180 years. To highlight the link between global temperature and solar activity, Negi says that the number of sunspots fell sharply between 1640 and 1720 around the time the earth experienced a cooling of over 1.2 degrees Celsius.

Global temperature variations...
He says mathematical analysis of global temperature variations during 1978-1999 as measured by satellites, and for the period 1880-2000 as obtained from meteorological stations, showed a 70-80 year periodicity. Negi argues that human beings cannot cause or control these cyclic changes that are the result of “the complex process of solar system variability and atmosphere-sea interaction in different space time scales”.