Will Maya make magic with social engineering?
Mayawati’s social engineering will
be put to the test as 15 constituencies of central UP go to the polls in the
third phase on Thursday. The phase is crucial for BSP as five of the 15 seats
are reserved and a good number of constituencies have a sizeable Brahmin-Muslim
population.
In 2004, the area going to poll had 16 seats, of which both SP and BSP had won
six seats each while BJP and Congress won two apiece. But the 2007 assembly
polls were a real clincher for the blue brigade as it won 42 of the 80 seats.
Clearly, the support of Brahmins came as icing on the cake for BSP which
started looking beyond its traditional votebank.
While a repeat of the 2007 show doesn’t look a possibility for BSP, thanks to
significant change in ground realities and an apparent disillusionment being
witnessed among Brahmins, multi-cornered contests on almost all the seats
giving sleepless nights to all other parties. The winner, in these circumstances,
is normally decided by the steadfast support of one big block: Muslims,
Brahmins or Dalits.
As things stand now, while Rae Bareli is a walkover for Sonia Gandhi, other 14
seats look set for a last-over finish. In Lucknow, where AB Vajpayee used to
sleepwalk his way to victory in the previous five LS polls, his protege Lalji
Tandon is facing Akhilesh Das, a BSP moneybag with Congress lineage, and UPCC
chief Rita Bahuguna Joshi. Kanpur has junior home minister Sri Prakash Jaiswal
battling with his back to the wall against three formidable opponents.
With no national issue likely to decide the voting pattern, parties are
whipping up all kinds of propaganda, ranging from caste card to character
assassination of rivals to make a dent. As it happened in 2004, local issues
are likely to be on top of voters’ mind when they press EVM buttons.
Congress, meanwhile, has propped up some interesting candidates in this phase.
So, while Mayawati’s former principal secretary PL Punia is testing the power
of ‘panja’ in reserved Barabanki constituency, Anu Tandon has come out of
boardrooms of Mumbai to brave the heat and dust, and muscle power of mafia
Aruna Shankar Shukla in her native Unnao.
The party has also roped in BSP’s tainted former MP Raja Ram Pal — an accused
in the cash-for-query scam — from Bilhaur and late Rajiv Gandhi’s commando
Kamal Kishore from Bahraich. BJP has fielded an IIM grad Ranjan Choudhary from
Mohanlalganj constituency and SP has poached Nafisa Ali from Congress stable
for Lucknow seat.
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