WILL the Congress retain power in Andhra Pradesh where the Congress is ruling on its own? Andhra is again the only state going in for Assembly elections along with the Lok Sabha polls. The Chief Minister Rajasekhara Reddy is confident of winning 230 out of 294 assembly and 36-39 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats. He is on a mission to create an Andhra Shining image while his opponents are determined to demolish his fort.

The desperation of the TDP-led opposition is evident from the way its leader, Chandrababu Naidu, made an air dash to Delhi to focus on what he called the misdeeds of the Chief Minister and his family. In Andhra it’s going the royal battle between Reddy and Naidu.

The race has become complex following delimitation. Several constituencies were abolished and some got reserved or de-reserved. This may create confusion in ticket distribution. Following delimitation, SC and ST seats have gone up to seven and three respectively. Constituencies like Tenali, Bhadrachalam, Siddipet, Bobbili and Hanamkonda have been abolished while Sraku, Vizianagaram, Chevella and Bhongir have been created.

Reddy has to overcome at least half a dozen factors to retain power. In 2004, the Congress combined with the TRS, CPI, CPI (M) and the Majilis apart from the Maoists to capture power. This time the grand alliance formed by the TDP, CPI, CPI (M) and TRS observing winds in their favour. In all probability, this combine would do well in the Telangana region, which sends 119 legislators to the 294-member State assembly and 16 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats. The TRS, which bagged 26 seats in the state assembly and five in Lok Sabha, had joined the Congress-led coalition government in the state and at the Centre. But the party came out when it was unable to get a separate Telengana state accusing the Congress of betraying the interests of the people of Telangana.

In the 2004 polls, the Congress and the TRS won on the promise of a separate Telangana; and this was even included in the common minimum programme of the UPA. However, even after five years, the party is dillydallying about it. It is no secret that the Chief Minister is opposed to a separate Telangana and had impressed upon the Congress high command the dangers of creating a separate state. The Congress is emboldened by its performance in last year’s by-elections in which the TRS host miserably. Interesting, the TDP which opposed the move in 2004 polls has taken a u-turn to back the demand.

Every government from Chenna Reddy to NTR to YSR came to power only after sending some signal to the Naxalites that the government would negotiate with them after polls. Reddy could not succeed in bringing the Naxalites to see reason and had to ultimately resort to crushing them.

The global recession has its effect on the India economy and job market. The surveys have revealed that this is one of the most important factors in the coming elections. The Cyberated created by the TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu has been badly affected by the recession.

Another factor is the Satyam effect. To add to YSR’s woes is the Satyam mega fraud. The opposition led by BJP, TDP, TRS, CPI and CPI (M) have taken it to the streets alleging corruption. The Congress would face the music if the corruption issue sticks to the voters.