Worldwide PC shipments are now expected to grow by just 4.2% in 2011, down from a February forecast of 7.1%, according to the International Data Corporation. A combination of declining first quarter shipments, an increasingly conservative economic outlook, relative saturation among developed market consumers, and competing products will lead to slow growth in 2011 before a rebound in 2012. For 2012 through 2015, growth is still expected to fall in the 10 to 11% range.

Consumer PC shipment growth averaged 18.9% from 2005 to 2007, almost 7% faster than commercial shipments. During 2008 and into 2009, consumer growth was actually faster at more than 21% while commercial growth fell below 3% in 2008 and then dropped to -10.5% during the recession in 2009.

First quarter 2011 PC shipments were down 1.1% from the prior year, with a decline of 4.4% in consumer shipments that was only partially offset by 3.0% growth in commercial segments. However, the decline in consumer shipments was particularly acute in mature regions, with double-digit declines in Western Europe, the U.S., and Canada. Relatively strong growth in the second quarter of 2010 is likely to keep second quarter 2011 growth low. This trend in consumer growth, along with only modest growth in the commercial sector, a cautious outlook from PC makers, disruptions including the Japan earthquake and nuclear disaster, the Arab Spring, and reduced economic projections (including government stimulus) will keep overall growth in single digits the rest of 2011.

New designs, chips, operating systems, features, and services, along with falling prices will continue to make PCs more powerful, affordable, and functional than ever before.

PC Shipment Growth by Region and Form Factor, 2010-2015