1) The backward caste leaders believe that it’s a conspiracy of the upper castes to deprive them of their hard-earned positions in political leadership. Lalu, Mulayam and Sharad Yadavs are openly talking about this fear.

2) A section of the Congress believes that the party has walked into a trap laid by the BJP. The acrimonious debate on the issue has completed the disintegration of a secular alliance that had pushed back the BJP surge. The Congress and the Left support women’s quota while the RJD, SP, and smaller groupings such as of Ramvilas Paswan, H D Deve Gowda are opposed to it. They have all been together in opposing the BJP until recently.

3) A section of the BJP believes the Congress has pulled a fast one on it. At a meeting of party MPs on Thursday, many complained that the Congress has walked away with the credit. An extreme version of this resentment, articulated by BJP MP Yogi Adityanath, says the quota bill is a conspiracy to unsettle the Hindu society, by disrupting family traditions and the proper role of women in the society!!

4) A section of the Muslims believe that it’s conspiracy to reduce the representation of the community in legislature. They say there already is a tendency to reserve for SCs and STs, the constituencies that have consequential Muslim population. And now women’s reservation will further squeeze the community out.

This round of quota debate also showed some interesting somersaults.

1) The urban elite and the English media have been against quotas of all types, in general. During the Mandal commission debate of early 1990s and during the 2005 debate on OBC reservation in IITs and IIMs they held forth on the virtues of meritocracy. But women’s quota is one that they all seem to be cheering, with no reference to meritocracy.

2) Leaders of caste-based parties such as Lalu Prasad and Mayawati have been in support of all kinds of quotas. But this is one quota they are all opposing.

I believe there is some bit of substance in all four theories, though not necessarily any conspiracy.

Women’s quota is a social force that will storm us with unpredictable consequences, and I am optimistic that the changes will be more for better than for worse