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New Dawn at Vienna
New Dawn at Vienna
A new chapter has been written in the Indian history at Vienna, NSG countries waved off sanctions imposed 16 years back on supply of duel use technology to India, despite being non signatory to the NPT regime. The deal has generated strong opinion for and against, in India, as well as, among the countries representing the 45 member NSG group.
Now, technically India is free to carryout trade in nuclear technology with any country of its choice, it means it can start negotiating for fuel, reprocessing technology and new reactors from countries other then USA.
This is a landmark agreement in terms of strategic shift, capable of influencing economical and political clout of India to the next higher level, wherein, it could be a factor that would decide the world order in the next 10 years. In my view, it can only be rivaled by the Indio–Russian peace treaty of 1971, which made an obscure country of snake charmers ( as the world viewed us) into a regional power, capable of offsetting many a calculations in the region.
The history would indicate if the deal would mean gains or losses for India! But, in my personal assessment this is the best thing to have happened in several decades. One must remember this is a strong commercial deal, driven by business in mind, than anything else. The spin off’s much larger…However, there is also a price that needs to be paid! Before I dwell upon the cost -benefit analysis, I would like to reiterate some absolute truths that emerged from the exercise at NSG meet.
We all know that 45 member nuclear suppliers group had to take a contentious decision to wave off the rules to allow nuclear trade with India. Countries like Austria, Sweden, Holland, New Zealand, Ireland and China were not at all enthused to do the honors of waving off the sanctions, unless India signs the CTBT.
India’s case was steered by Germany, France, South Africa, Brazil, Russia, and Canada …..And to some extent Japan, In fact, these countries do matter in the nuclear trade with India.
The Chinese has proved themselves as the most unreliable and dishonest neighbors, out to sabotage the deal behind the back! It was phone call from White House that made them bend. So was the case with the group opposing the deal! A late night chat between President of US, & Prime Minister of New Zealand turned the tide in India’s favour.
The labour Govt in Australia, despite it’s know position against supply of Uranium to India, supported the deal.
The villain’s that emerged from the show were Austria & China. In fact the Indian foreign office had to issue Demarche (term used for official communication, seeking position/ or expressing displeasure) to Chinese ambassador, questioning their public commitment at the highest level given to our prime minister. The Chinese eventually fell in line as they realized, NSG or No NSG…the deal is going to go through.
It has been reported that the NSG countries were forced upon to agree to the deal, as fate accomplice, it was big brother at their throat! They had little choice but to agree. The American influence in world affairs has surely not diminished despite blunder after blunder being committed by them.
Let me come back to the real issue of cost benefit analysis to India:-
Costs:-
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Already, our Defence Minister, Mr AK Antony is in USA to initiate strategic ties
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India may be forced to buy 126 F-18’s ,the order would be worth at least 8 to 10 Billion Dollars
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An aging Aircraft carrier may be sold to India
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Probably India would be made to join joint operations in small countries to start with, and major role as policeman in the Indian ocean region for keeping the interests of America and its allies safe.
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India has to wait till 123 agreement is ratified by US Congress for initiating nuclear trade, it means, we need to do business first with Americans and then with others
Benefits:-
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Procuring License for Duel use technology would be simple
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Technologies denied due the ban will now be freely available in other fields too!
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Energy security is possible by 2020 AD
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Huge private sector entry in nuclear energy field, hitherto, reserved only for Govt sector( Govt of India need to amend the domestic law on Atomic energy, likely to happen very soon)
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Capital inflow to the tune of Rs 2,00,000 (2 lac ) Crores in the sector is likely in a decade.
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As per the Indian industry body ASSOCHAM ….about 40 domestic industrial houses are already talking to multinationals for setting up nuclear power plants, even if 10 of them succeed, it’s a big pie for all.
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With-In 2 decades time, like our strangle hold over software industry, Indians would be manning nuclear power plants all over the world, its something that would happen as a natural corollary.
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I am 100% sure the super critical technology for thermal plants would be made available on platter in near short and medium terms.
Conclusions:-
As Indians, we don’t have faith in ourselves; we worry too much about hypothec situations, most of the fears originate in our belief that if India (god forbids) need to carryout another nuclear test, we would land up in a major soup! It’s not at all true! It would never happen!!…. insurance(safety) for this is covered through foreign capital inflow and trade volumes running into several billions of dollars with Major Multinationals, who would turn the world upside down to continue the trade. This is exactly happening with China! So much of capital is put in China that no one dares to pull out, except few Govts drawing orgasm by venting out verbal outburst, nothing more!
I have compared this deal with Indo-Russian treaty of 1971; every other political party except congress & CPI had opposed it. The entire country assumed that we would be Russian stooges, but it never was the case.
India would see a paradigm shift in the strategic relationship with key payers in the world, we would be a giant power house economically, the cascading effects are mind blowing, lets not just restrict our views to nuclear deal only … the entire gambit of this trade would be up for grabs for us in times to come.
If we succeed in out indigenous efforts in the fast breeder reactor technology, this deal will help Indian companies to become competent enough to assimilate the technology and multiply it more economically.
Remember, India and China cannot be friends as long as communists rule China, but we can just pretend to be friends and guard our interests, now with the dubious role played by China out in the open, we need to continue shunning Chinese companies in our strategic fields. That’s the best pay back we can offer them.
I am sure Americans will clear 123 agreement with in Sep 08, as they would not risk Indians trading with Russian & France before them getting their share!
For we the Indians, the topic for drawing intellectual orgasm over the nuclear deal is over! I have noticed a major turn around even in the media, many skeptics are now turncoats, advocating the deal!
God bless India! We have just crossed first major hurdle!!
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