More heat from the markets likely in 2009 before stocks settle down
It's the darkest before dawn, but how dark can it get. Investors and fund managers reckon that there is still some more darkness to engulf the markets before it dawns and the sun sets in. However, most say these glum days would lead into brighter moments in 2009.
Bob Doll, vice-chairman and director of BlackRock says, "We think it is unlikely that stocks are past the bottoming process that started on October 10, meaning additional near-term market failures and market rallies should continue. We would remind investors that we are only two months into the current base-building process and that such processes typically last between four and six months."
But, this gloom is likely to throw up a lot many investment opportunities. Sandeep Kothari, an equity fund manager with Fidelity Mutual Fund says, "We are beginning to see long-term value emerge and 2009, more than ever, will be a year for stock picking.We will be looking for companies with strong balance sheets, healthy cash flows and quality management."
A Balasubramanian chief investment officer with Birla Sun Life AMC thinks in the same direction, "While it is tough to time the market from investment point of view, equity as an asset class would provide an opportunity for long term investor. Falling inflation and benign interest rate policy environment should also retain the current opportunity of investing in income funds in the coming year too."
And after taking a battering in 2008, there are commodities which could start looking better. In fact the star performer for 2008 has been gold. The precious metal shed more than 30% between January to September, before recovering slightly because of its appeal as safe-haven investment.
"If we take the current crude oil price, which is well below $40 a barrel, then actual gold prices should be somewhere around $250-$300 per troy ounce, but it is trading at around $870 per ounce, which clearly signals that the metal is attracting buyers because of its appeal as safe-haven investment," says Rajini Panicker, head research MF Global (India).
Though real estate seems to be trapped in the throes of a slowdown, the year ahead is expected to see some more pain, reckon experts. As the story for 2009 unfolds the theme dominantly looks like 'wait and watch' at the moment.
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