When Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janashakti Party entered into a secret arrangement to contest 37 of the 40 seats in Bihar between themselves leaving just three seats to the Indian National Congress, they thought it was a master stroke.

The congress was shell-shocked. It felt cheated. It felt humbled because the Congress was not even consulted by the RJD and LJP in spite of being part of the UPA government. Even minimum courtesies of consulting the major partner on seat sharing arrangements were done away with before making the announcement.

The Congress responded by dumping both the parties in Jharkhand and striking a deal with JMM leaving just two seats for Lalu and none for Paswan. That hurt them but they could not do a thing. But, the Congress’ master stroke misfired as the JMM decided to go it alone.

In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party played a similar game offering very few seats to the Congress. They even started hobnobbing with the NCP to pressurise the Congress. Again the Congress party felt humiliated.

The regional parties were trying to play politics with a national party. They were trying to dictate their terms to the Congress party. They offered very few seats to the Congress and yet claimed to be part of the UPA alliance. They acted as if they were doing a favour to their senior partner. That put the Congress party in a quandary.

The Congress turned the tables on these regional parties by contesting all the seats in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Now, the Congress does not care as to how RJD and LJP fare in Bihar or how SP fares in Uttar Pradesh. However, the Congress has provided a pressure valve in this bold step by not fielding candidates against the key players RJD, LJP and SP.

The regional parties have now got a taste of their own medicine. Lalu, Paswan, Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh now realize what they are up against. The Congress candidates are now going to cut into their votes in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The number of seats for Congress may not go up dramatically. But, the Congress will manage to teach its junior partners one thing: that it is not only the regional parties that can stake claim to nuisance value.

In Bihar, this Congress move might benefit Nitish Kumar. In Uttar Pradesh, it might benefit Mayawati. The presence of the BJP is too negligible in these two states. So, the Congress’ loss cannot be the BJP’s gain.

By contesting all the seats in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, the Congress party has placed itself in a win-win situation.

Even if the Congress does not win on the extra seats it is contesting, it does not stand to lose. Those seats were never available to the Congress to contest because of the high-handedness of regional parties.

If these regional parties win in spite of Congress intervention, they will still be the natural allies of the Congress. The Congress can always go to back to Lalu, Paswan and Mulayam and tell them that the Congress did not put up candidates against them because the Congress wanted to ensure their win in the elections.

After the election, Lalu, Paswan and Mulayam might find themselves in an embarrassing situation. They are almost sure to be elected. But, their parties may not do so well. So, it would deal a moral blow to these leaders and bring down their false pride.

If Nitish wins in Bihar and Mayawati wins in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress can tell them that the Congress was mainly responsible for their grand showing because it was the Congress which cut the votes of RJD, LJP and SP. So, the chances of Congress alliance with these parties in the post-poll scenario cannot be ruled out. In any case, Nitish is not too happy to ally with the BJP.

Tamil Nadu poses a problem for the Congress. It is not so much the need of the hour but the compulsion of the Congress to fight the elections alongside Karunanidhi’s DMK. Karunanidhi had swept the polls last time with Congress support. Sending the external affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee to Sri Lanka at the instance of Karunanidhi to negotiate safe passage for Tamils wasn’t a comfortable thing for the Congress to do. The Congress had to do it because it was a question of keeping the coalition government in place.

Subsequently, the PMK which had allied with Karunanidhi in the last elections has deserted him and joined his archrival Jayalalithaa. Jayalalithaa who was opposed to the LTTE for all these years has suddenly taken to the Tamil cause following the kind of solidarity she saw on the streets for Lankan Tamils. In a way, she may have hijacked the Tamil cause from Karunanidhi. So, what Congress did under pressure from Karunanidhi might actually help it to build a bridge to Jayalalithaa and through her to PMK if they win the elections.

If Karunanidhi’s DMK wins the elections against all odds, it is a happy situation for the Congress. But, if it doesn’t, where will Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK and its new founded ally the PMK go? Currently, the AIADMK is part of the third front.

Then, there is the question of Naveen Patnaik’s BJD in Orissa. As of now he is part of the third front. But, will the third front take off?

That is highly unlikely. In the event of the third front not taking off, the Congress has better chances of staking the claim the next government. Old allies or new allies, the UPA seems to be on its way to the form the next government.

We cannot ignore the role of such opportunists as Deve Gowda and Ajit Singh. Power is heady for both of them.

At this stage, it is difficult to predict in what way Varun Gandhi’s campaign would help BJP. The one effect it has had on some erstwhile NDA partners such as Naveen Patnaik, Nitish Kumar and Deve Gowda is that they are distancing themselves from the BJP and its politics of polarization.

The UPA may have new coalition partners but it is likely to have more strength in the Lok Sabha than what it had in this term. The next coalition is likely to be more of a post poll alliance than a pre-poll alliance.