In my previous blog on China – China is a safe and dependable country. Do you agree? – I covered in detail the poll conducted by China’s Global Times – a newspaper connected with China’s Communist Party and the findings shared by this Global Times that India is not a friendly country and India poses the biggest threat to China’s existence.
Well. This evening, I had an opportunity to go through a report on Bharat Verma’s (Editor of Indian Defence Review) observation that China will launch an attack on India before 2012.
To support his observation Mr Verma has mentioned the following reasons:
- Growing unemployment and financial problems faced by the Chinese due to the global recession creating internal social unrest, Flight of capital worth billions of dollars, depletion of its foreign exchange reserves and China would like to divert the attention of its own people from unprecedented internal dissent
- Growing irrelevance of Pakistan increasing China’s nervousness mainly because of Obama’s new Afghanistan – Pakistan Policy and also Pakistan’s inability to manage its own affairs
- India’s growing alliance with United States of America and the West.
Mr Verma has thus concluded that these concerns are compelling Chinese to best address by waging a war against India to achieve multiple strategic objectives.
In my view, China will not venture into taking such a decision at this juncture. It may not like to complicate things for itself.
- China will have to spend more effort, energy and time in managing its internal situations and try to remain as one unified country
- China is a closed country now and no one can correctly predict the current ground reality and situation. One may not rule out any time the possibility of China’s total disintegration, the way the USSR disintegrated.
- Chinese have tasted the fruits of social and economic freedom partly in select pockets within China and they may not like to part with this freedom under any circumstances and allow Communists to hold on to power for ever.
It may be noted that India does not nurse any territorial ambitions. Hence it will have universal support in case Chinese attack India.. Compared to China, India’s defence force is quite young and can withstand a longer war. China may have an older muscle power but India has a young and intelligent mind power. History has shown that muscle power cannot meet mind power in wars and the success ultimately went to those with mind power (intelligence).
Hence, in my view, China will not dare to attack India. Any takers?
